On January 8, 2009, the USDE approved the use of the Texas Projection Measure (TPM) in the calculations for AYP in 2009. The TPM provides a method for measuring annual student improvement that also satisfies state legislative requirements passed during the 79th and 80th Texas legislative sessions. TEC §39.034 requires the measurement of annual improvement of student achievement. The TPM that was developed for TAKS, TAKS (Accommodated), and linguistically accommodated tests (LAT) is a multi-level regression-based prediction model. The model predicts student performance separately by subject in the next high-stakes grade (defined by Texas legislation as grades 5, 8, and 11). It uses current year scale scores and campus-level mean scores.
Projection equations are developed the year before they are applied, so that the formulas can be published and shared across the state before they are used in state accountability or federal AYP calculations. For example, projection equations developed in 2008 will be applied in 2009 to predict student performance. A student projected to be at or above proficiency in the next high stakes grade is determined to have met the improvement standard. Projections will be made each year for all subjects for all students who have valid scores in reading/English language arts and mathematics. The equations will be updated each year after the spring TAKS administration and will be published before their use the following year.
Beginning in 2009, the Texas Projection Measure (TPM) will be used to determine state accountability ratings. The TPM will be evaluated as a means of elevating a campus or district rating in cases where neither the TAKS base indicator nor Required Improvement (RI) are sufficient to allow a campus or district to earn the next higher rating. For any TAKS measure not meeting the standard for the next higher rating, RI, TPM, or the Exceptions Provision can elevate the rating one level, and only one level. Combinations of RI, TPM, and the Exceptions Provision cannot be used together for one measure to elevate a rating more than one level. Different features can be used for different measures to successfully elevate a rating, but multiple features cannot be used for any one measure.
Of the population of students who did not pass the test for a given subject, the number who met the TPM is determined. This count of failers who are projected to pass at the next high-stakes grade level is added to the count of passers and a new percentage is calculated. The new percentage is named “TAKS Met Standard with TPM.” If the “TAKS Met Standard with TPM” value is greater than or equal to the accountability standard for the subject, the measure meets the criteria for the next higher rating. If a student does not have a TPM for a test, that student is included in the TAKS indicator based on performance on the current year test. A TPM will be calculated for all grades and subjects except grade 7 writing and all subjects in grade 11. A TPM will not be available for grade 8 science until 2010.